- Betting markets are booming ahead of the US presidential election.
- Kalshi has pulled in $100 million in election bets this month and is the top free finance app in Apple’s app store.
- Robinhood is getting in on the action, announcing its own election betting platform on Monday.
Betting markets are having a moment in the 2024 presidential election cycle.
The popularity of platforms that allow users to bet on politics has exploded, with sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to place bets on specific election outcomes. Robinhood is the latest platform to get in on the action, with the popular brokerage app announcing the launch of its own election betting contracts on Monday.
Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court cleared Kalshi to open its election betting platform to US citizens. Since then, the platform has attracted more than $100 million in bets on who will win the November 5 election.
Kalshi has gained popularity on the Apple App Store, landing at #7 on Tuesday morning. Among free finance apps, Kalshi is the top download, eclipsing the Cash app, PayPal and Venmo.
“I think we’re number one for the entire app store until Election Day, so the demand curve is really exponential,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Monday.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, which is not available to US citizens, has seen an explosion in trading volume this year.
According to data from The Block, nearly $2 billion was wagered on the Polymarket website in October, nearly four times the $533 million wagered in September and more than 10 times the $39 million wagered in April.
Prior to 2024, Polymarket’s monthly trading volume was typically less than $20 million.
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While Polymarket is not available to US users, it has attracted a lot of attention and shaped the discussion of these betting platforms in the US media in the latter part of the election cycle. That’s because the election outcome odds on the platform heavily favor Donald Trump, in stark contrast to the polls, which are extremely close a week from the vote.
There has also been a review of betting on the platform itself. Part of Polymarket’s trading volume this month has come from a massive “whale” trader who has bet more than $30 million on the outcome of the US election, sometimes placing up to 71 bets a minute. The bets have been mainly that Donald Trump will win the presidential election.
Interactive Brokers also launched a slew of election betting contracts earlier this month following the court’s decision to allow Kalshi to operate.
Between the rapid legalization of sports betting, the continued popularity of crypto trading, and now the sudden surge of interest surrounding election disputes, there is a clear convergence of ways for the average person to make — and in many cases, lose — money through a few clicks on their phone. It is a situation where everyday hobbies are being financed.
According to Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, the boom in betting markets is a good thing because it allows for a new arbiter of truth based on money.
“Now when you’re asking a question of whether TikTok is going to be banned? Who are we relying on to get that answer? Now there’s a market-based mechanism to look at,” Mansour said.
Kalshi’s mission is to bring “more truth to the world through the power of markets,” a job posting on its website said.